Why are ‘experts’ so frequently wrong?

by J Scott Christianson, Columbia Daily Tribune Columnist

It seems like the more technology weather forecasters have, the less accurate their predictions are. It’s almost like there is an inverse relationship between the number of times a meteorologist says the phrase “super doppler” and the odds that he or she will get it right.

Perhaps with all this technology at hand, they feel obligated to make a prediction regardless of whether they have any clue as to what will happen with the weather. Stations spend millions of dollars on weather equipment, and I imagine that the station owner might get a little ticked if the weather person went on the nightly broadcast and declared “it might thunderstorm or it might be sunny; I really have no idea what will happen.”

Nevertheless, we still tune in to the TV weather to hear the forecasters’ expert predictions. Perhaps it is the “act of God” quality about weather that makes us continually forgive the inaccuracies of our meteorological experts. Although it’s one thing to forgive the weather experts when they get it wrong, I can’t understand why our news media continue to turn to the same political and policy experts for guidance when they continually get it wrong.

For example, take the stalwart neoconservative William Kristol. In the buildup to the Iraq war, the news media called on Kristol as a Middle East expert who could forecast how the war would play out.